Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

U.S. Reverses Climate Bill, China’s Solar Surge & 7-Year Turbine Backlog

• Peter Kelly-Detwiler

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The energy landscape is experiencing a seismic shift with the passage of the "One Big, Beautiful Bill" into law. This dramatic policy reversal dismantles much of the Biden-era renewable energy initiatives, triggering the cancellation of tens of gigawatts of renewable projects and creating what promises to be persistently tight power markets for years to come.

The ripple effects are already visible throughout the energy sector. Major turbine manufacturers like GE Vernova, Mitsubishi, and Siemens face overwhelming demand with wait times stretching up to seven years and prices jumping by 50% in less than a year. With natural gas rig counts dropping and the EIA forecasting higher gas prices, we're witnessing the perfect storm for power sector inflation. Energy buyers are anxiously awaiting PJM's capacity auction results, which will provide our first glimpse into the new market reality.

Despite these headwinds, innovation continues. Texas's Guadalupe Valley Electric Cooperative is pioneering a virtual power plant with distributed residential batteries, while California's Turtelock School District is charging new electric buses with solar canopies. New Jersey has unanimously passed smart solar permitting legislation that follows Germany's successful model of streamlining residential installations. Meanwhile, China's renewable deployment continues at a staggering pace – installing 93,000 megawatts of solar in May alone (that's 100 panels every second), dwarfing America's quarterly installations. These contrasting stories highlight the complex, rapidly evolving energy transition playing out across markets, technologies, and geopolitics.

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Speaker 1:

I've got your energy stories for this, the second week of July 2025, and, of course, the biggest energy story of the week and the year for that matter is the passage into law of the so-called One Big, beautiful Bill, a name that perhaps author Kurt Vonnegut would have come up with on one of his finer days, or maybe Joseph Heller. The O-triple-B essentially reverses much of the renewable energy and industrial policy put in place with the passage of the Biden-era IRA and will result in the cancellation of tens of gigawatts of renewable generation projects in the very near future. It's already started. There's a lot more detail here than I'll get into, but big picture is this sets the stage for tight power markets for some time to come. It's not like this capacity will or can immediately be replaced with gas turbines. The turbine majors GE, vernova, mitsubishi and Siemens are sold out, with wait times in some cases up to seven years. Costs of those turbines are reported to have jumped as much as 50% over the past 10 months and while gas prices are relatively muted at present, rig counts are down. You can blame the low cost of oil for some of that. Saudi Arabia is pushing out a lot right now, as is OPEC and expected prices for the next year, though, will become significantly higher for gas. At least that's what the EIA is forecasting. So we're probably moving into an inflationary period in the power sector. One indicator to watch for PGM's base residual capacity auction, which opens tomorrow and runs through the 15th, with results expected to be posted on the 22nd. Energy buyers will be watching and wincing, awaiting that outcome.

Speaker 1:

South Central Texas Cooperative Guadalupe Valley Electric Cooperative will work with distributed battery storage developer BasePower to create a two megawatt virtual power plant. Residential customers will have access to backup power in case of blackouts, while the co-op will operate the batteries remotely through BasePower software to manage exposure to wholesale power markets and transmission costs. The battery systems will be deployed in new houses built by national homebuilder Lennar and owned by Base Power. In California, turtelock Unified School District received nine electric Bluebird buses recently and charging infrastructure as well. They will be charged through a mixture of AC and DC chargers that take electricity from solar canopies over the school parking lot, as well as some utility power from solar canopies over the school parking lot as well as some utility power. The project is being run by partners Schneider Electric and the Mobility House, with Mobility House software optimizing the use of the on-site solar and reducing utility energy costs.

Speaker 1:

In New Jersey, the State Senate unanimously passed smart solar permitting legislation that will expedite the permitting process for residential solar and battery storage systems. This law calls for the Department of Community Affairs to develop and offer an online automated permitting platform for rooftop solar and battery installations within a year. Consequently, code-compliant applicants should be able to obtain permits without delay. Yeah, that's a big deal here in the United States, but not in places like Germany, where user-friendly approaches have been the norm for well over a decade and there have dramatically cut soft costs of rooftop solar. And finally, in this shortened week, it was the 4th of July week. After all. In May, china reportedly installed a record 93,000 megawatts of solar capacity. That equates to adding about 100 solar panels every second. The first five months saw a total of 198,000 megawatts of solar installed. Putting that figure in perspective, here in the United States, the first three months of this year saw 10,100 megawatts. Well, that's all for this week. Thanks for watching and we'll hope to see you soon.