Power Grid Crisis: 10,000 MW Shortfall by 2030?!

Uncover the hidden intricacies of the energy sector's most pressing issues and pioneering breakthroughs in this week's thought-provoking episode. Is the answer to our energy grid's slow progress and growing demand found in FERC's bold approval of PJM's new Reliability Resource Initiative? With energy sector leaders and experts gathering at RE Plus Northeast in Boston, we dissect the critical challenges plaguing interconnection and transmission, while also exploring innovative projects aimed at fast-tracking generation and storage assets to alleviate capacity shortfalls. Pioneering regulatory changes promise to reshape the landscape, but are they enough to meet the looming energy demand?

Transitioning to future-forward technologies, the episode delves into the promising advancements in battery technology and offshore wind energy. BYD's strides in solid-state battery production hint at a potential leap in energy storage solutions, with mass demonstrations on the horizon for 2027. Meanwhile, Siemens Gamesa is betting big on offshore wind power, with significant investment in expanding its manufacturing capabilities in France. With firm orders already in place, this expansion signals a brighter future for renewable energy. Join us for insights from the forefront of energy innovation and learn about the projects poised to reshape our energy systems.

Transcript

Speaker 1: 0:00

Greetings. I've got your energy stories for this, the third week of February 2025. Well, last week, at RE Plus Northeast in Boston, I led a four-hour workshop on interconnection and transmission issues. The takeaway was pretty straightforward Despite some regulatory reforms, we're not interconnecting new resources to the grid anywhere fast enough. And even if we were, we'd soon run out of available transmission capacity, even if we had widespread utilization of grid-enhancing technologies such as dynamic line ratings, advanced power flow controls or topology optimization. At the same time, demand is rapidly expanding, so we are between the proverbial rock and the hard place. Pgm is one area that's up against it, with recent generated retirements and a constipated interconnection queue which is largely full of low-carbon renewables. While these renewable assets are critical in addressing emissions and climate change, their variability and the timing of their power production doesn't do much to ensure grid reliability. Think 6 to 9 pm on a blistering hot summer evening or a frigid winter night. The grid operator has enjoyed significant reserve margins in years past, but has recently warned that in a few years, it may not have the dispatchable capacity necessary to keep the lights on, and it's warned of a shortfall of as much as 10,000 megawatts of capacity by the 2030-31 delivery year. Pgm had thus recently filed its proposed Reliability Resource Initiative, rri with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. This approach creates a one-time cut-to-the-head-of-the-line approach Think Disney's Lightning Lane Premier Pass, where you cut ahead of everybody else and they all wait. This is meant to fast-track review of up to 50 shovel-ready generation or storage assets that meet eligibility scoring criteria related to viability, reliability and availability.

Speaker 1: 1:52

On February 11th, the FERC approved this approach, finding it quote just and reasonable and not unduly discriminatory. The process is expected to start by April of this year. These assets will also be required to participate in capacity markets for at least a decade. Ferc also approved the grid operator's proposal to increase and accelerate access to the bulk power system by changing its surplus interconnection service rules. This approach will allow generators to more quickly access existing approved interconnection if they do not exceed the rated capacity of that interconnection point. It also makes it specifically easier for storage resources, allowing for surplus interconnection service from quote resources seeking to receive electric energy from the grid and store it for later injection to the grid. Unquote. So, for example, if a 100 megawatt gas peaker has access to an interconnection, a battery or solar and batteries could be added to the same delivery point as long as no more than 100 megawatts is ever delivered from the combined assets. Good, yes, as it improves efficiency of the existing assets, but it doesn't get us to what we really need, which is a lot more transmission. And there's now a precedent here, especially with the RRI, which is not a good one for developers of renewables in other areas governed by grid operators, many of which are also facing capacity shortfalls and reliability issues. So look for potentially more of these types of activities to come.

Speaker 1: 3:20

Switching gears according to Chinese media, the CTO of BYD's battery business stated that his company had already produced its first solid-state cells on a pilot production line last year. He indicated that BYD expects to begin mass demonstration of solid-state batteries around 2027, but offered little information with respect to when series production might occur. He was, however, quoted as saying that large-scale introduction of solid-state batteries might only take place after 2030. So inching ever closer to that holy grail of a much denser and more stable lithium battery.

Speaker 1: 3:56

It appears the future of offshore wind is not dead yet. Siemens Gamesa, confirming it, will invest just over 200 million dollars to expand its offshore wind blade manufacturing facility in Le Havre in northern France, with construction to be completed by 2026. The expansion will be dedicated to manufacturing 115 meter long blades for its 14 megawatt platform. To date, the company says it has more than 16,000 megawatts worth of firm orders, and Siemens Gamesa has already installed 1,000 megawatts of wind power off the coast of France, with another 1,500 megawatts of additional projects in the pipeline and, finally, in the we-can't-wait-for-it-to-be commercialized department.

Speaker 1: 4:38

Researchers from the University of Cambridge have developed a solar powered reactor that sucks carbon dioxide directly from surrounding air and converts it into sustainable synthetic gas. The tech uses specialized filters to pull CO2 from the air at night and then, when the sun appears, its light heats up the captured CO2. A semiconductor powder absorbs ultraviolet radiation, initiating a chemical reaction that converts the CO2 into solar-powered syngas. Mirrors increase the efficiency of the whole system. The research team says this approach does not require any transportation or storage and is easier to scale up than earlier solar-powered devices. Let's hope Well. Thanks for watching and we'll see you again soon.